Sunday, June 25, 2006

Which Y Company will be purchased first?

If inkling is really the seer that it claims to be, then we'll soon know which Y company will be bought out first. Or, more precisely, we'll know the probability, for each Y company, of it being bought out in the next two years. As of this post, reddit is in the lead big time. Incidentally, I saw this idea on reddit a few months back.

I believe that there's supposed to only be one answer in these inkling markets. But it's certainly possible that more than one company could be purchased in the next two years. In the event of more than one, does the first one to be purchased win the market?

Update: I realize that I think I've misunderstood the market. We aren't picking the one company that will be purchased. It seems to be an individual market for each company. And the dollar value for that company is an estimate to the probability that that company will be acquired in 2 years. Each company started at $50, corresponding to 50% probability (why 50% I wonder?).